Races · house · 2026 · Illinois

house · open seat

Mike Quigley vs Tommy Hanson

← Illinois house Illinois house →

Safe DD +31.5 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
99% Quigley (D)
1% Hanson (R)
Win probability
Mike Quigley99% (D)
Tommy Hanson1% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +31.5
80% CID+15.4 → D+47.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin D +31.5 · 80% CI D+15.4 → D+47.6 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.8%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 94¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+19) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+31.5 with an 80% CI ranging from D+15.4 (10th pctile) to D+47.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +31.5

80% CI: D +15.4 → D +47.6 · win prob 99%

R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models2 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +38.8

80% CI D +34.5 → D +43.3

CV MAE 8.51

consensusMarket-implied

D +14.8

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

85¢90¢95¢100¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the IL-05 House seat?”	94¢	7¢	+0¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 13 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

12Quigley · 92%
Hanson · 8%1
Endorsements tracked
Mike Quigley12 · 92%
Tommy Hanson1 · 8%
Total13
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DMike Quigley12 endorsers

Most notable · Chicago Tribune

Organizations11

Newspapers1

RTommy Hanson1 endorser

Most notable · Chicago Tribune

Newspapers1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-19

Mike QuigleyH0IL05096 ↗

Receipts

$621.7K

Disburse

$584.8K

Cash on hand

$1.2M

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$10

D side

$10 · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

SIERRA CLUB INDEPEN…

For / against split

For Quigley $10

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	100%	for Mike Quigley

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D4

Cook Political Report

Safe D

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe D

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 5, 2026Safe Dmodel

May 3, 2026Lean Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-19

Endorsements13 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks