Races · house · 2026 · Illinois
house · open seat
Illinois house
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+18) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+28.1 with an 80% CI ranging from D+12.0 (10th pctile) to D+44.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +28.1
80% CI: D +12.0 → D +44.2 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +33.8
80% CI D +1.1 → D +46.1
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the IL-02 House seat?” | 94¢ | 3¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 27 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet27
Endorsements tracked
Donna Miller27 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total27
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DDonna Miller27 endorsers
Most notable · Carol Moseley Braun · former ambassador to New Zealand (1999–2001) and Samoa (2000–2001) and U.S. senator (1993–1999)
Elected officials21
Federal 6State 4Local 9
Elected officials · 21
- Carol Moseley Braun · former ambassador to New Zealand (1999–2001) and Samoa (2000–2001) and U.S. senator (1993–1999)
- Carol Ronen · former state senator from the 7th district (2000–2008)
- William Marovitz · former state senator from the 3rd district (1981–1993)
- Jan Schakowsky · IL-09 (1993–present)
- Lois Frankel · FL-22 (2013–present)
- Terri Sewell · AL-07 (2011–present)
- Troy Carter · LA-06 (2021–present)
- Anna Valencia · Chicago City Clerk (2017–present)
- Brad Schneider · IL-10 (2013–2015, 2017–present)
- Bridget Degnen · Cook County commissioner from the 12th district (2018–present)
- Bridget Gainer · Cook County commissioner from the 10th district (2009–present)
- Cook County commissioner · commissioner from the 1st district (2023–present)
- Debra Silverstein · Chicago alder from the 50th ward (2011–present)
- Frank Aguilar · Cook County commissioner from the 16th district (2020–present)
- John Daley · Cook County commissioner from the 11th district (1992–present)
- Julie Hamos · former state representative from the 18th district (1998–2010)
- Karen May · former state representative from the 58th district (2001–2012)
- Lori Lightfoot · former mayor of Chicago (2019–2023)
- Michael Scott Jr. · Cook County commissioner from the 2nd district (2024–present)
- Scott Britton · Cook County commissioner from the 14th district (2018–present)
- Stanley Moore · Cook County commissioner from the 4th district (2013–present)
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- Divine Nine PAC
- Elect Democratic Women
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Ertharin Cousin · former executive director of the World Food Programme (2012–2017)
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Chicago Tribune
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-04-27Donna MillerH6IL02355 ↗
Receipts
$2.3M
Disburse
$2.3M
Cash on hand
$69.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$4.5M
D side
$4.5M · 100%
R side
$3.2K · 0%
Top spender
AFFORDABLE CHICAGO …
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFFORDABLE CHICAGO NOW! super pac · boosts D
| D | $4.4M | 98% | for Donna Miller |
| ADPAC INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURES COMMITTEE super pac · boosts D
| D | $100.5K | 2% | for Donna Miller |
| THE PEOPLE'S LOBBY pac · boosts R
| R | $2.5K | 0% | against Donna Miller |
| PROGRESSIVE CHANGE CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE pac · boosts R
| R | $650 | 0% | against Donna Miller |
| DMFI PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $381.82 | 0% | for Donna Miller |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-04-27
Endorsements87 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks