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Races · house · 2026 · Illinois
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Eric Sorensen vs Dillan Vancil

← Illinois houseIndiana house →
Likely DD +12.7 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 4 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
84% Sorensen (D)
16% Vancil (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin D +12.7 · 80% CI R+3.4 → D+28.8 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.8%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 88¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 32d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 84% D

With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 89%, market-derived).

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+12.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+3.4 (10th pctile) to D+28.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 84% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +12.7
80% CI: R +3.4 → D +28.8 · win prob 84%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +5.5
80% CI R +14.1 → D +19.9
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +10.8
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 88¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
50¢60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢370 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWJul 2Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Democratic Party win the IL-17 House seat?”
86¢13¢+1¢—-2
Kalshi
“IL-17 House winner?”
89¢7¢-1¢$0K+2

Endorsements · 15 total

Source · Wikipedia · 27 candidates with no endorsements yet
14Sorensen · 93%
Vancil · 7%1
DEric Sorensen14 endorsers
Most notable · 314 Action
Organizations14
RDillan Vancil1 endorser
Most notable · Chicago Tribune
Newspapers1
DJonathan Jackson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RChristian Maxwell0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DDonna Miller0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RMike Noack0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RAngel Oakley0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DDelia Ramirez0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RTommy Hanson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMike Quigley0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DSean Casten0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RNiki Conforti0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DLa Shawn Ford0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMelissa Bean0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJennifer Davis0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DDaniel Biss0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DBrad Schneider0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DBill Foster0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJeff Walter0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RMike Bost0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DJulie Fortier0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DNikki Budzinski0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJeff Wilson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJames Marter0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DLauren Underwood0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RMary Miller0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DJennifer Todd0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RDarin LaHood0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DPaul Nolley0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-02-25
Eric SorensenH2IL17147 ↗
Receipts
$1.9M
Disburse
$785.0K
Cash on hand
$1.2M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Dillan VancilOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$196.4K
Disburse
$202.7K
Cash on hand
$14.0K
Debts
$12.7K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$156.67
D side
$156.67 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
GIVEGREEN UNITED AC…
For / against split
For Sorensen $156.67
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTIOND$156.67100%for Eric Sorensen

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D4
Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jun 17
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe D
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 4, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 5, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 3, 2026Lean Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-02-25
Endorsements15 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks