Races · house · 2026 · Illinois
house · open seat
Paul Nolley vs Darin LaHood
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 95% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+21.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+37.2 (10th pctile) to R+5.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 95% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +21.1
80% CI: R +37.2 → R +5.0 · win prob 5%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +26.2
80% CI R +32.6 → R +6.7
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +11.3
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 12¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the IL-16 House seat?” | 12¢ | 89¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 8 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet6
2
Endorsements tracked
Paul Nolley6 · 75%
Darin LaHood2 · 25%
Total8
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DPaul Nolley6 endorsers
Most notable · Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
Organizations5
Organizations · 5
- AFL-CIO · s AFL-CIO
- Citizen Action · Illinois
- International Union of Operating Engineers · Local 399
- Track AIPAC
- United Auto Workers
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
RDarin LaHood2 endorsers
Most notable · AIPAC
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- AIPAC
- Fraternal Order of Police · of Police
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-05-26Darin LaHoodH6IL18088 ↗
Receipts
$3.1M
Disburse
$2.0M
Cash on hand
$6.7M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Paul Nolley
Receipts
$236.9K
Disburse
$77.3K
Cash on hand
$159.6K
Debts
$3.7K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.0K
D side
$1.0K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
CITIZENS FOR THE 16TH
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CITIZENS FOR THE 16TH pac · boosts D
| D | $1.0K | 100% | against Darin LaHood |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-05-26
Endorsements8 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks