Races · house · 2026 · Illinois
house · open seat
Paul Davis vs Mary Miller
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+20) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+30.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+46.5 (10th pctile) to R+14.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +30.4
80% CI: R +46.5 → R +14.3 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +41.0
80% CI R +61.8 → R +19.9
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +14.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 7¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the IL-15 House seat?” | 7¢ | 94¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 4 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet1
2
Endorsements tracked
Paul Davis1 · 33%
Mary Miller2 · 67%
Total3
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RMary Miller2 endorsers
Most notable · AIPAC
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- AIPAC
- Maggie's List
DPaul Davis1 endorser
Most notable · Chicago Tribune
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Chicago Tribune
DJennifer Todd1 endorser
Most notable · Illinois Federation of Teachers
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Illinois Federation of Teachers
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-04-30Mary MillerH0IL15129 ↗
Receipts
$1.1M
Disburse
$917.3K
Cash on hand
$833.2K
Debts
$34.5K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Paul Davis
Receipts
$86.7K
Disburse
$83.1K
Cash on hand
$3.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Jennifer Todd
Receipts
$57.6K
Disburse
$42.4K
Cash on hand
$9.2K
Debts
$2.7K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$6.2K
D side
$1.8K · 29%
R side
$4.4K · 71%
Top spender
ILLINOIS AGRICULTUR…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILLINOIS AGRICULTURAL ASSOCIATION ACTIVATOR POLITICAL INVOLVEMENT FUND (FED) 'ACTIVATOR'/'ILLINOIS FARM BUREAU ACTIVATOR' pac · boosts R
| R | $3.7K | 60% | for Mary Miller |
| MAHA PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.8K | 29% | against Mary Miller |
| FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $699.71 | 11% | for Mary Miller |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-04-30
Endorsements5 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks