Races · house · 2026 · Illinois
house · open seat
Lauren Underwood vs James Marter
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt D · model 88% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+14.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+1.5 (10th pctile) to D+30.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 88% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · tilt-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +14.6
80% CI: R +1.5 → D +30.7 · win prob 88%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +5.5
80% CI R +14.1 → D +19.9
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.6
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 93¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the IL-14 House seat?” | 93¢ | 7¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 14 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet14
Endorsements tracked
Lauren Underwood14 · 100%
James Marter0 · 0%
Total14
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DLauren Underwood14 endorsers
Most notable · Hakeem Jeffries · House Minority Leader (2023–present) from NY-08 (2013–present)
Organizations9
Organizations · 9
- AFL-CIO · s AFL-CIO
- Black Economic Alliance · PAC
- International Union of Operating Engineers · Locals 150 and 399
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection
- SEIU · Healthcare
- Sierra Club
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Hakeem Jeffries · House Minority Leader (2023–present) from NY-08 (2013–present)
- Jed Davis · state representative from the 75th district (2023–present) ( running for re-election )
Other2
Other · 2
- Naperville · n, realtor and former Naperville township supervisor
- Oswego · Marter, Oswego Public Library Board member and perennial candidate
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Chicago Tribune
RJames Marter0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-01-09Lauren UnderwoodH8IL14174 ↗
Receipts
$2.0M
Disburse
$1.7M
Cash on hand
$1.3M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
James Marter
Receipts
$99.3K
Disburse
$89.7K
Cash on hand
$13.6K
Debts
$31.6K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$35
D side
$35 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
GIVEGREEN UNITED AC…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $25 | 71% | for Lauren Underwood |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 29% | for Lauren Underwood |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
15 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
15 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles15
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.27
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.29 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.27
Week-over-weekshift −0.29 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 27%
Neutral 73%
27% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets27%
Neutral73%
R-leaning outlets0%
27% of outlets classified by editorial lean
W
Benton steps down from Illinois House seat
S
Plainfield Democrat Benton resigns Illinois House seat after ethics investigation
S
Rich Miller: Illinois AFL-CIO unlikely to withhold endorsements
A
Supreme Court mail - in ballots ruling : Illinoisans praise decision affirming election administration largely under state control
C
Illinois AFL - CIO unlikely to withhold endorsements
W
Natalie Phelps Finnie to fill Illinois House seat vacated by Brandon Phelps
N
Illinois Second Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
M
Lauren Underwood Fiery Hearing Battle With Markwayne Mullin
A
Illinois Primary Results 2026: Senate, House and Governor
A
Illinois U.S. House Primary Election Live Results 2026
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-01-09
Endorsements14 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage15 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks