Races · house · 2026 · Illinois
house · open seat
Nikki Budzinski vs Jeff Wilson
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 90% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+5) suggests Lean D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+16.1 with an 80% CI ranging from tied (10th pctile) to D+32.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 90% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · lean-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +16.1
80% CI: R +0.0 → D +32.2 · win prob 90%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +9.8
80% CI R +28.3 → D +20.5
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.0
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 93¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the IL-13 House seat?” | 93¢ | 8¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 29 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet29
Endorsements tracked
Nikki Budzinski29 · 100%
Jeff Wilson0 · 0%
Total29
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DNikki Budzinski29 endorsers
Most notable · Chicago Tribune
Organizations28
Organizations · 28
- AFL-CIO · s AFL-CIO
- AIPAC
- Alliance for Retired Americans · Americans
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees · Council 31
- Associated Fire Fighters · of Illinois
- Carpenters · a Carpenters Regional Council
- Citizen Action · Illinois
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- Equality PAC
- Humane World Action Fund
- Illinois Federation of Teachers
- International Union of Operating Engineers · Locals 150 and 399
- Ironworkers · District Council of St. Louis & Vicinity
- J Street PAC
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- Laborers · Region Laborers
- League of Conservation Voters
- Madison County · Democrats
- National Organization for Women · PAC
- Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund
- Pipe Trades Association · sociation
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- SEIU · Healthcare
- United Auto Workers
- United Food and Commercial Workers · Local 881
- United Mine Workers COMPAC Council
- United Steelworkers · District 7
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Chicago Tribune
RJeff Wilson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-06Nikki BudzinskiH2IL13153 ↗
Receipts
$2.5M
Disburse
$1.6M
Cash on hand
$2.6M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Jeff Wilson
Receipts
$218.9K
Disburse
$192.3K
Cash on hand
$26.5K
Debts
$97.6K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$83.9K
D side
$83.9K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
Protect Progress
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Protect Progress super pac · boosts D
| D | $83.9K | 100% | for Nikki Budzinski |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
5 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
5 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles5
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.60
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.60
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 60%
Neutral 40%
60% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets60%
Neutral40%
R-leaning outlets0%
60% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Illinois Seventh Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
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A
Illinois Primary Results 2026: Senate, House and Governor
A
Illinois U.S. House Primary Election Live Results 2026
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-06
Endorsements32 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage5 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks