Races · house · 2026 · IL
house · open seat
Morgan Coghill vs Carl Lambrecht
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified Likely D · model 98% D
likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
D +27.8
80% CI: D +10.2 → D +45.3 · win prob 98%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 181 |
| Residual σ | 13.66pt |
| Generated | 5/6/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models1 models
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
D +27.8
80% CI D +10.2 → D +45.3
CV MAE 13.66
Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater
3 raters| Rater | Rating | Updated | Poll D-marg. | Rater marg. | Δ poll−rater |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Safe D | Feb 6 | — | +18.0 | — |
| Inside Elections | Safe D | Dec 5 | — | +18.0 | — |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | Jul 15 | — | +18.0 | — |
Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.
last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
- 5/4/2026 Likely D via pvi
In the news
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Tazewell County Clerk visits D . C . to advocate for election security funding933thedrive.com · 11d ago
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