Races · house · 2026 · Illinois
house · open seat
Jonathan Jackson vs Christian Maxwell
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+18) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+28.1 with an 80% CI ranging from D+12.0 (10th pctile) to D+44.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +28.1
80% CI: D +12.0 → D +44.2 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +33.8
80% CI D +1.1 → D +46.1
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +15.1
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the IL-01 House seat?” | 94¢ | 4¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 96 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet82
14
Endorsements tracked
Jonathan Jackson82 · 85%
Christian Maxwell14 · 15%
Total96
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJonathan Jackson82 endorsers
Most notable · Hakeem Jeffries · House Minority Leader (2023–present) from NY-08 (2013–present)
Organizations42
Organizations · 42
- 314 Action
- AFL-CIO · s AFL-CIO
- AIPAC
- Alliance for Retired Americans · Americans
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees · Council 31
- Associated Fire Fighters · of Illinois
- Bend the Arc
- Black Economic Alliance · PAC
- CAIR · Action Midwest
- Carpenters · a Carpenters Regional Council
- Chicago Federation of Labor
- Chicago Teachers Union
- Citizen Action · Illinois
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- Equality PAC
- Giffords
- Humane World Action Fund
- Illinois Federation of Teachers
- International Union of Operating Engineers · Locals 150 and 399
- Ironworkers · District Council of St. Louis & Vicinity
- J Street
- J Street PAC
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- LGBTQ+ Victory Fund
- Laborers · Region Laborers
- League of Conservation Voters
- National Organization for Women · PAC
- Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund
- New Trier · Democrats
- Peace Action
- Pipe Trades Association · sociation
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Plumbers · Local 130
- Population Connection
- SEIU · Healthcare
- Sierra Club
- Track AIPAC
- United Auto Workers
- United Food and Commercial Workers · Local 881
- United Mine Workers COMPAC Council
- United Steelworkers · District 7
Elected officials30
Federal 10State 15Local 3
Elected officials · 30
- Hakeem Jeffries · House Minority Leader (2023–present) from NY-08 (2013–present)
- Robyn Gabel · Majority Leader of the Illinois House of Representatives (2023–present) from the 18th district (2010–present)
- JB Pritzker · Governor of Illinois (2019–present)
- Adriane Johnson · state senator from the 30th district (2020–present)
- Julie Morrison · state senator from the 29th district (2013–present)
- Mark Walker · state senator from the 24th district (2024–present)
- Mary Edly-Allen · state senator from the 31st district (2023–present)
- Ram Villivalam · state senator from the 8th district (2019–present)
- Alexi Giannoulias · Illinois Secretary of State (2023–present)
- Eric Sorensen · IL-17 (2023–present)
- Mike Quigley · IL-05 (2009–present)
- Nikki Budzinski · IL-13 (2023–present)
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
- Sean Casten · IL-06 (2019–present)
- Bill Foster · IL-11 (2008–2011, 2013–present)
- Bob Morgan · state representative from the 58th district (2019–present)
- Daniel Didech · state representative from the 59th district (2019–present)
- Dick Durbin · Illinois (1997–present)
- Elburn · alter, mayor of Elburn
- Fritz Kaegi · Cook County Assessor (2018–present)
- Jed Davis · state representative from the 75th district (2023–present) ( running for re-election )
- Jennifer Gong-Gershowitz · state representative from the 17th district (2019–present)
- Joyce Mason · state representative from the 61st district (2019–present)
- Lake County · nty Board members
- Lauren Beth Gash · former state representative from the 60th district (1993–2001) and Lake County Democratic chair
- Rita Mayfield · state representative from the 60th district (2010–present)
- Scott Britton · Cook County commissioner from the 14th district (2018–present)
- Tammy Duckworth · Illinois (2017–present)
- Toni Preckwinkle · President of the Cook County Board of Commissioners (2010–present)
- Tracy Katz Muhl · state representative from the 57th district (2024–present)
Other8
Other · 8
- Carroll County · upt, chair of the Carroll County Board
- 14th district · businessman and candidate for the 14th district in 2024
- Champaign County · mpaign County Board member
- Madison County · Democrats
- Mike Frerichs · Illinois Treasurer (2015–present)
- Naperville · n, realtor and former Naperville township supervisor
- Oswego · Marter, Oswego Public Library Board member and perennial candidate
- Susana Mendoza · Illinois Comptroller (2016–present)
Newspapers2
Newspapers · 2
- Chicago Tribune
- Daily Herald
RChristian Maxwell14 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations9
Organizations · 9
- AFL-CIO · s AFL-CIO
- AIPAC
- Citizen Action · Illinois
- Fraternal Order of Police · of Police
- Illinois Federation of Teachers
- International Union of Operating Engineers · Local 399
- Maggie's List
- Track AIPAC
- United Auto Workers
Elected officials2
Federal 2State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
Newspapers2
Newspapers · 2
- Chicago Tribune
- Daily Herald
Other1
Other · 1
- Air Force · tier, research microbiologist and Air Force veteran
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Jonathan Jackson
Receipts
$352.0K
Disburse
$316.3K
Cash on hand
$89.4K
Debts
$27.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Christian Maxwell
Receipts
$32.1K
Disburse
$1.1K
Cash on hand
$35.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements96 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks