Democratic primary · August 8, 2026
Hawaii house Democratic primary
Field of 4 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
90
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (24.1pp).
Forecast CI width80
24.1pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution80 / 100
Measured24.1pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 2 polls + fundamentals1Ed CaseEdward Espenett Case is an American lawyer and politician. A member of the Democratic Party, he has served as the U.S. representative for Ha…
2Generic DemocratChallenger
3Della Au BelattiDella Au Belatti ( Democratic Party ) is a member of the Hawaii House of Representatives , representing District 26 . She assumed office on …
4Jarett KeohokaloleChallenger
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Case | Belatti | Keohokalole | Democrat | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13 | Data for Progress | 366 · LV | 40 | 16 | 12 | — | +24 |
| Oct 13 | Data for Progress | 366 · LV | 43 | — | — | 36 | +7 |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 5 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yetEd Case · 5
DEd Case5 endorsers
Most notable · David Ige · former governor of Hawaii (2014–2022)
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- AIPAC
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection
Elected officials1
Federal 0State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- David Ige · former governor of Hawaii (2014–2022)
DDella Au Belatti0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DJarett Keohokalole0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DGeneric Democrat0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing —No FEC committee filings yet for the Democratic primary candidates. Most primary candidates file quarterly; if the primary is recent the data may take a few weeks to appear.
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements20 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks