Races · house · 2026 · Georgia

house · open seat

Lucy McBath vs Kevin Martin

← Georgia house Georgia house →

Safe DD +37.0 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
99% McBath (D)
1% Martin (R)
Win probability
Lucy McBath99% (D)
Kevin Martin1% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +37.0
80% CID+20.9 → D+53.1
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin D +37.0 · 80% CI D+20.9 → D+53.1 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.8%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 94¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+25) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+37.0 with an 80% CI ranging from D+20.9 (10th pctile) to D+53.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +37.0

80% CI: D +20.9 → D +53.1 · win prob 99%

R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models2 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +48.7

80% CI D +33.3 → D +53.9

CV MAE 8.51

consensusMarket-implied

D +14.8

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

85¢90¢95¢100¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the GA-06 House seat?”	94¢	2¢	+0¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 6 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

6McBath · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Lucy McBath6 · 100%
Kevin Martin0 · 0%
Total6
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DLucy McBath6 endorsers

Most notable · Gabby Giffords · former AZ-08 (2007-2012)

Organizations5

Elected officials1

Federal 1State 0Local 0

RKevin Martin0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —

Lucy McBathOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$756.5K

Disburse

$1.1M

Cash on hand

$621.0K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Kevin MartinOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$10.3K

Disburse

$10.2K

Cash on hand

$100

Debts

$10.3K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D4

Cook Political Report

Safe D

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe D

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 5, 2026Safe Dmodel

May 3, 2026Likely Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE

Endorsements6 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks