Races · house · 2026 · Georgia
house · open seat
Georgia house
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+21) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+33.7 with an 80% CI ranging from D+17.6 (10th pctile) to D+49.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +33.7
80% CI: D +17.6 → D +49.8 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +40.2
80% CI D +34.5 → D +43.6
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.9
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the GA-13 House seat?” | 94¢ | 4¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 8 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet8
Endorsements tracked
Jasmine Clark8 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total8
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJasmine Clark8 endorsers
Most notable · Alexander Vindman · retired Army Col. and witness in the first impeachment of Donald Trump and candidate for the 2026 U.S. Senate
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- 314 Action
- Indivisible
- J Street PAC
- MoveOn
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund · (since June)
- Vote Mama
Celebrity2
Celebrity · 2
- Alexander Vindman · retired Army Col. and witness in the first impeachment of Donald Trump and candidate for the 2026 U.S. Senate
- Mary Trump · niece of Donald Trump and sister of Fred Trump III
DDavid Scott0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-19Jasmine ClarkH6GA13070 ↗
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$1.0M
Cash on hand
$142.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
David ScottH2GA13012 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$4.2M
D side
$4.2M · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
Protect Progress
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Protect Progress super pac · boosts D
| D | $4.2M | 99% | for Jasmine Clark |
| Indivisible Action other · boosts D
| D | $16.9K | 0% | for Jasmine Clark |
| #VOTEPROCHOICE PAC other · boosts D
| D | $7.9K | 0% | for Jasmine Clark |
| INDIVISIBLE PROJECT INC. pac · boosts D
| D | $1.0K | 0% | for Jasmine Clark |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-19
Endorsements17 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks