Races · house · 2026 · Georgia

house · open seat

Ceretta Smith vs Rick Allen

← Georgia house Georgia house →

Safe RR +17.7 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
8% Smith (D)
92% Allen (R)
Win probability
Ceretta Smith8% (D)
Rick Allen92% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +17.7
80% CIR+33.8 → R+1.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin R +17.7 · 80% CI R+33.8 → R+1.6 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.7%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 19¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

articles · new

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R · model 92% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+7) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+17.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+33.8 (10th pctile) to R+1.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 92% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · lean-r · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +17.7

80% CI: R +33.8 → R +1.6 · win prob 8%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models2 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +19.3

80% CI R +23.4 → R +13.0

CV MAE 8.51

consensusMarket-implied

R +8.2

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 19¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

5¢10¢15¢20¢25¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the GA-12 House seat?”	19¢	81¢	+2¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 3 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

1Smith · 33%
Allen · 67%2
Endorsements tracked
Ceretta Smith1 · 33%
Rick Allen2 · 67%
Total3
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

RRick Allen2 endorsers

Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)

Elected officials1

Federal 1State 0Local 0

Organizations1

DCeretta Smith1 endorser

Most notable · American Federation of Government Employees

Organizations1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —

Rick AllenOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$856.7K

Disburse

$753.4K

Cash on hand

$1.3M

Debts

$1.6M

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Ceretta SmithOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$22.8K

Disburse

$20.9K

Cash on hand

$2.0K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R4

Cook Political Report

Safe R

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe R

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.