Races · house · 2026 · Georgia
house · open seat
Chris Harden vs John Cowan
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 98% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+12) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+24.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+40.8 (10th pctile) to R+8.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 98% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +24.7
80% CI: R +40.8 → R +8.6 · win prob 2%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +28.5
80% CI R +36.5 → R +19.5
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +12.2
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 10¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the GA-11 House seat?” | 10¢ | 90¢ | -1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 1 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet1
Endorsements tracked
Chris Harden0 · 0%
John Cowan1 · 100%
Total1
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RJohn Cowan1 endorser
Most notable · Andy Harris · MD-01 (2011–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Andy Harris · MD-01 (2011–present)
DChris Harden0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-17John CowanH0GA14048 ↗
Receipts
$2.1M
Disburse
$1.9M
Cash on hand
$207.3K
Debts
$1.6M
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Chris Harden
Receipts
$53.7K
Disburse
$41.0K
Cash on hand
$4.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$526.1K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$526.1K · 100%
Top spender
DEFENDING OUR VALUE…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEFENDING OUR VALUES PAC other · boosts R
| R | $501.8K | 95% | for John Cowan |
| HEALTHCARE FREEDOM SUPER PAC other · boosts R
| R | $15.1K | 3% | for John Cowan |
| American Values First other · boosts R
| R | $9.1K | 2% | for John Cowan |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
16 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
16 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles16
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.19
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.50 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.19
Week-over-weekshift −0.50 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 25%
Neutral 69%
R 6%
31% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets25%
Neutral69%
R-leaning outlets6%
31% of outlets classified by editorial lean
S
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Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-17
Endorsements5 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage16 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks