Races · house · 2026 · Georgia
house · open seat
Pamela DeLancy vs Houston Gaines
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 97% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+23.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+39.5 (10th pctile) to R+7.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 97% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +23.4
80% CI: R +39.5 → R +7.3 · win prob 3%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +26.7
80% CI R +32.5 → R +19.3
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +12.5
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 10¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the GA-10 House seat?” | 10¢ | 90¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 7 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet7
Endorsements tracked
Pamela DeLancy0 · 0%
Houston Gaines7 · 100%
Total7
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RHouston Gaines7 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017-2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials6
Federal 6State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 6
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017-2021, 2025–present)
- Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)
- Tom Emmer · House majority whip (2023–present) from MN-06 (2015–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Jim Jordan · OH-04 (2007–present)
- Rich McCormick · GA-07 (2023–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Turning Point Action
DPamela DeLancy0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-20Houston GainesH6GA10175 ↗
Receipts
$2.1M
Disburse
$1.1M
Cash on hand
$993.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Pamela DeLancy
Receipts
$13.4K
Disburse
$9.6K
Cash on hand
$7.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.5M
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$1.5M · 100%
Top spender
DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS super pac · boosts R
| R | $708.8K | 47% | for Houston Gaines |
| Gets It Done PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $375.8K | 25% | for Houston Gaines |
| AMERICAN MISSION super pac · boosts R
| R | $261.6K | 17% | for Houston Gaines |
| CONSERVATIVES FOR AMERICAN EXCELLENCE INC. super pac · boosts R
| R | $107.4K | 7% | for Houston Gaines |
| Charter Schools Action PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $23.1K | 2% | for Houston Gaines |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-20
Endorsements7 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks