Races · house · 2026 · Georgia
house · open seat
Amanda Hollowell vs Matt Day
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 95% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+20.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+36.4 (10th pctile) to R+4.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 95% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +20.3
80% CI: R +36.4 → R +4.2 · win prob 5%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +21.3
80% CI R +32.5 → R +13.3
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +11.6
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 11¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the GA-01 House seat?” | 11¢ | 84¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 14 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet2
12
Endorsements tracked
Amanda Hollowell2 · 14%
Jim Kingston12 · 86%
Total14
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RJim Kingston12 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017-2021), (2025-Present)
Elected officials12
Federal 10State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 12
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017-2021), (2025-Present)
- Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)
- Tom Emmer · House majority whip (2023–present) from MN-06 (2015–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Ben Watson · state senator from the 1st district (2015–present)
- Eric Johnson · former state senator from the 1st district (1995–2009) and candidate for governor in 2010
- Mack Mattingly · former U.S. Ambassador to Seychelles (1992–1993) and former U.S. senator from Georgia (1981–1987)
- Jim Jordan · OH-04 (2007–present)
- Rich McCormick · GA-07 (2023–present)
- David McIntosh · former IN-02 (1995–2001)
- Saxby Chambliss · former Georgia (2003–2015)
- Ted Cruz · Texas (2013–present)
DAmanda Hollowell2 endorsers
Most notable · Van R. Johnson · Mayor of Savannah (2020-Present)
Elected officials2
Federal 0State 0Local 1
Elected officials · 2
- Van R. Johnson · Mayor of Savannah (2020-Present)
- Working Families Party · es Party
RMatt Day0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-20Jim KingstonH6GA01109 ↗
Receipts
$1.9M
Disburse
$913.4K
Cash on hand
$949.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Amanda Hollowell
Receipts
$135.4K
Disburse
$117.2K
Cash on hand
$18.2K
Debts
$32.5K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.9M
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$1.9M · 100%
Top spender
AMERICAN MISSION
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMERICAN MISSION super pac · boosts R
| R | $960.4K | 49% | for Jim Kingston |
| DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS other · boosts R
| R | $430.9K | 22% | for Jim Kingston |
| Club for Growth Action super pac · boosts R
| R | $274.9K | 14% | for Jim Kingston |
| GEORGIA FIRST ACTION PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $232.4K | 12% | for Jim Kingston |
| CONSERVATIVES FOR AMERICAN EXCELLENCE INC. super pac · boosts R
| R | $50.6K | 3% | for Jim Kingston |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-20
Endorsements16 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks