Races · house · 2026 · Florida
house · open seat
Darren Soto vs Marcus Carter
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 53% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+4) suggests Lean D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+0.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+17.0 (10th pctile) to D+15.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 53% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · lean-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +0.9
80% CI: R +17.0 → D +15.2 · win prob 47%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +8.9
80% CI D +5.5 → D +20.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.8
80% CI R +7.3 → R +2.3
CV MAE 1.97
consensusMarket-implied
R +4.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 30¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat?” | 30¢ | 72¢ | +2¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 23 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet23
Endorsements tracked
Darren Soto23 · 100%
Marcus Carter0 · 0%
Total23
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DDarren Soto23 endorsers
Most notable · Greg Steube · FL-17 (2019–present)
Elected officials8
Federal 2State 6Local 0
Elected officials · 8
- Greg Steube · FL-17 (2019–present)
- Kat Cammack · FL-03 (2021–present)
- Denise Grimsley · former state senator (2012–2018)
- Cary Pigman · former state representative (2012–2020)
- Charlie Sembler · former state representative (1990–2000)
- Danny Burgess · state senator
- Patt Maney · state representative
- Ralph Poppell · former state representative (2002–2010)
Organizations7
Organizations · 7
- AIPAC
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- IAFF · Local 2918
- Latino Victory
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Sierra Club
- United Auto Workers
Other6
Other · 6
- Brevard County · evard County sheriff
- Glades County · Glades County sheriff
- Highlands County · ighlands County sheriff
- Indian River County · n River County sheriff
- Okeechobee County · echobee County sheriff
- Osceola County · Osceola County sheriff
Celebrity2
Celebrity · 2
- Félix Rodríguez · retired CIA officer
- Mark Donald · retired Navy SEAL
RMarcus Carter0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-19Darren SotoH6FL09179 ↗
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$422.9K
Cash on hand
$832.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Marcus Carter
Receipts
$14.9K
Disburse
$14.2K
Cash on hand
$2.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$10
D side
$10 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
SIERRA CLUB INDEPEN…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 100% | for Darren Soto |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean R1
Lean R · 1 rater
- The Economist · May 5
Likely R4
Likely R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Likely RThe Economist
Lean RInside Elections
Likely RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RSplit Ticket
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
16 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
16 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles16
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.31
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.29 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.31
Week-over-weekshift +0.29 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 31%
Neutral 69%
31% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets31%
Neutral69%
R-leaning outlets0%
31% of outlets classified by editorial lean
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Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-19
Endorsements24 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage16 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks