Races · house · 2026 · Florida
house · open seat
Paul Dellinger vs Mike Haridopolos
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 97% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+23.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+39.1 (10th pctile) to R+6.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 97% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +23.0
80% CI: R +39.1 → R +6.9 · win prob 3%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +26.7
80% CI R +32.5 → R +19.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.8
80% CI R +7.3 → R +2.3
CV MAE 1.97
consensusMarket-implied
R +11.9
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 11¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the FL-08 House seat?” | 11¢ | 86¢ | -1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 8 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet6
2
Endorsements tracked
Paul Dellinger6 · 75%
Mike Haridopolos2 · 25%
Total8
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DPaul Dellinger6 endorsers
Most notable · Shevrin D. Jones · State Senator from Florida Senate District 34 (2022-present)
Elected officials4
Federal 2State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 4
- Shevrin D. Jones · State Senator from Florida Senate District 34 (2022-present)
- Alexander Vindman · former Director of European Affairs for the National Security Council (2018–2020) and candidate for Senate in 2026
- Kathy Castor · U.S. representative from Florida's 14th congressional district (2007–present)
- Maxwell Frost · U.S. representative from Florida's 10th congressional district (2022-present)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- Florida AFL-CIO
- Vote Mama
RMike Haridopolos2 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- AIPAC
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Mike Haridopolos
Receipts
$1.3M
Disburse
$665.0K
Cash on hand
$844.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Paul Dellinger
Receipts
$2.7K
Disburse
$570.4
Cash on hand
$2.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- The Economist · May 5
Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Likely RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements8 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks