Races · house · 2026 · Florida
house · open seat
Michael Kirwan vs Aaron Bean
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 89% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+5) suggests Lean R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+15.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+31.2 (10th pctile) to D+1.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 89% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · lean-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +15.1
80% CI: R +31.2 → D +1.0 · win prob 11%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +14.0
80% CI R +19.2 → R +9.0
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.8
80% CI R +7.3 → R +2.3
CV MAE 1.97
consensusMarket-implied
R +7.4
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 21¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the FL-04 House seat?” | 21¢ | 79¢ | -5¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 8 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet6
2
Endorsements tracked
Michael Kirwan6 · 75%
Aaron Bean2 · 25%
Total8
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DMichael Kirwan6 endorsers
Most notable · Audrey Gibson · former minority leader of the Florida Senate (2018–2020) from the 6th district (2011–2022)
Elected officials5
Federal 1State 2Local 1
Elected officials · 5
- Audrey Gibson · former minority leader of the Florida Senate (2018–2020) from the 6th district (2011–2022)
- Tony Hill · former state senator from the 1st district (2002–2011)
- Tracie Davis · state senator from the 5th district (2022–present)
- Al Lawson · former U.S. representative for Florida's 5th congressional district (2017–2023)
- Bob Buckhorn · former mayor of Tampa (2011–2019)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- IAFF · Local 122
RAaron Bean2 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- AIPAC
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Aaron Bean
Receipts
$1.5M
Disburse
$746.4K
Cash on hand
$1.2M
Debts
$15.6K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Michael Kirwan
Receipts
$511.7K
Disburse
$285.2K
Cash on hand
$226.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R2
Likely R · 2 raters
- The Economist · May 5
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Safe R3
Safe R · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Likely RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
46 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles46
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.11
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.24 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.11
Week-over-weekshift −0.24 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 13%
Neutral 85%
R 2%
15% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets13%
Neutral85%
R-leaning outlets2%
15% of outlets classified by editorial lean
F
Byron Donalds Adds Endorsements from Incoming Florida Senate, House Leaders
F
Florida Democrats Intervene to Hold Paula Stark to the Same Rules as Every Candidate
N
Growth a major factor for Florida District 82 candidates as towns encroach
N
Florida Seventh Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
F
Florida Republicans are not happy about U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on late-arriving mail-in ballots
T
Florida candidates for state House answer 2026 election questions
T
Florida candidates for state House answer 2026 election questions
T
Florida candidates for Congress answer 2026 election questions
T
Florida candidates for state House answer 2026 election questions
V
House Republicans launching ad campaign in Virginia and Florida ahead of midterm elections
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements8 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks