Races · house · 2026 · Florida
house · open seat
Troy Albers vs Kat Cammack
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 96% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+22.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+38.1 (10th pctile) to R+5.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 96% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +22.0
80% CI: R +38.1 → R +5.9 · win prob 4%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +23.2
80% CI R +32.5 → R +17.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.8
80% CI R +7.3 → R +2.3
CV MAE 1.97
consensusMarket-implied
R +11.9
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 11¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the FL-03 House seat?” | 11¢ | 88¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 4 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet4
Endorsements tracked
Troy Albers0 · 0%
Kat Cammack4 · 100%
Total4
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RKat Cammack4 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- AIPAC
- Log Cabin Republicans
- Maggie's List
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
DTroy Albers0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-01-30Kat CammackH0FL03175 ↗
Receipts
$1.5M
Disburse
$1.2M
Cash on hand
$842.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Troy Albers
Receipts
$1.6K
Disburse
$1.6K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$46.2K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$30.9K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$30.9K · 100%
Top spender
LATINOS FOR CONSERV…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LATINOS FOR CONSERVATIVE VALUES super pac · boosts R
| R | $30.9K | 100% | for Kat Cammack |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 5
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-01-30
Endorsements4 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks