Races · house · 2026 · Florida
house · open seat
Hector Mujica vs Carlos Gimenez
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 96% R
Polling average rates this race Likely R (R+6.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+22.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+38.8 (10th pctile) to R+6.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 96% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +22.7
80% CI: R +38.8 → R +6.6 · win prob 4%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +23.7
80% CI R +28.3 → R +18.8
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +6.0
80% CI R +10.8 → R +1.3
CV MAE 3.71
consensusMarket-implied
R +12.5
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 10¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 31 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 10% · polls 40%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the FL-28 House seat?” | 10¢ | 91¢ | +1¢ | — | +0 |
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
2 polls · through Mar 7, 2026 · latest MDW Communications
Carlos Giménez
VoteHub46.0%
VoteHub
Polling average46.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Rep
VoteHub45.0%
VoteHub
Polling average45.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Dem
VoteHub41.0%
VoteHub
Polling average41.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Hector Mujica
VoteHub40.0%
VoteHub
Polling average40.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg40.0%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average40.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.0 pt above our average
VoteHub's independent average across 2 polls (through Mar 7, 2026): Carlos Giménez 46.0%, Rep 45.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | MDW CommunicationsFor · Florida Politics - Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government | 514 · LV | D-LEAN | — | — | 40 · 46 |
Endorsements · 8 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet8
Endorsements tracked
Hector Mujica8 · 100%
Carlos Gimenez0 · 0%
Total8
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DHector Mujica8 endorsers
Most notable · Adam Smith · WA-09 (1997–present)
Elected officials7
Federal 6State 0Local 1
Elected officials · 7
- Adam Smith · WA-09 (1997–present)
- Joaquin Castro · TX-20 (2013–present)
- Raul Ruiz · CA-25 (2013–present)
- Teresa Leger Fernández · NM-03 (2021–present)
- Alex Vindman · former director of European affairs for the U.S. National Security Council, whistleblower in the 2019 Trump–Ukraine scandal, and brother of U.S. representative Eugene Vindman
- Daniella Levine Cava · mayor of Miami-Dade County (2020–present)
- Ruben Gallego · Arizona (2025–present)
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Alexander Vindman · former director of European affairs for the U.S. National Security Council, whistleblower in the 2019 Trump–Ukraine scandal, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2026
RCarlos Gimenez0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Carlos Gimenez
Receipts
$414.7K
Disburse
$346.2K
Cash on hand
$644.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 5
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements13 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks