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Races · house · 2026 · Florida
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house · open seat

Yurina Gil vs Mario Diaz-Balart

← Florida houseFlorida house →
Safe RR +28.2 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
1% Gil (D)
99% Diaz-Balart (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin R +28.2 · 80% CI R+44.3 → R+12.1 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.6%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 12¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+16) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+28.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+44.3 (10th pctile) to R+12.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +28.2
80% CI: R +44.3 → R +12.1 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +36.5
80% CI R +42.9 → R +30.5
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.8
80% CI R +7.3 → R +2.3
CV MAE 1.97
consensusMarket-implied
R +11.1
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 12¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
5¢10¢15¢20¢25¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Republican Party win the FL-26 House seat?”
12¢87¢-5¢—+0

Endorsements · 2 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
Diaz-Balart · 100%2
RMario Diaz-Balart2 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Organizations1
DYurina Gil0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —
Mario Diaz-BalartOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$1.5M
Disburse
$1.1M
Cash on hand
$2.2M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Yurina GilOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$38.6K
Disburse
$22.7K
Cash on hand
$17.1K
Debts
$180.94
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R1
Safe R4
Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jun 17
The Economist
Likely R
May 5
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe R
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 5, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 3, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements2 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks