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Races · house · 2026 · Florida
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house · open seat

Frederica Wilson vs Patricia Gonzalez

← Florida houseFlorida house →
Safe DD +34.2 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
99% Wilson (D)
1% Gonzalez (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin D +34.2 · 80% CI D+18.1 → D+50.3 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.8%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 99¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+18) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+34.2 with an 80% CI ranging from D+18.1 (10th pctile) to D+50.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +34.2
80% CI: D +18.1 → D +50.3 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +36.0
80% CI D +28.3 → D +43.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.8
80% CI R +7.3 → R +2.3
CV MAE 1.97
consensusMarket-implied
D +23.4
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 99¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
85¢90¢95¢100¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Democratic Party win the FL-24 House seat?”
99¢2¢+4¢—+0

Endorsements · 2 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
2Wilson · 100%
DFrederica Wilson2 endorsers
Most notable · AIPAC
Organizations2
RPatricia Gonzalez0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-07-03
Frederica WilsonOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$153.1K
Disburse
$260.1K
Cash on hand
$390.2K
Debts
$15.3K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Patricia GonzalezOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$1.3K
Disburse
$1.2K
Cash on hand
$95.4
Debts
$1.2K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$423.0K
D side
$423.0K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
—
For / against split
For Gilbert $423.0K

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D5
Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jun 17
The Economist
Safe D
May 5
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe D
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 5, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 3, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-03
Endorsements2 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks