Races · house · 2026 · Florida
house · open seat
Victoria Doyle vs Deborah Adeimy
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 6d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 59% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+4) suggests Lean D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+2.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+13.3 (10th pctile) to D+18.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 59% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · lean-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +2.8
80% CI: R +13.3 → D +18.9 · win prob 59%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +8.9
80% CI D +5.5 → D +20.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.8
80% CI R +7.3 → R +2.3
CV MAE 1.97
consensusMarket-implied
D +0.3
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 52¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat?” | 52¢ | 46¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetDVictoria Doyle0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RDeborah Adeimy0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-07-02Deborah Adeimy
Receipts
$138.4K
Disburse
$84.5K
Cash on hand
$57.5K
Debts
$65.5K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$8.6K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$8.6K · 100%
Top spender
—
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Tossup1
Tossup · 1 rater
- The Economist · May 5
Tilt R1
Tilt R · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Lean R2
Lean R · 2 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 28
Cook Political Report
Lean RThe Economist
TossupInside Elections
Tilt RSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean RSplit Ticket
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
17 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
17 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles17
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.29
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.20 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.29
Week-over-weekshift +0.20 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 35%
Neutral 59%
R 6%
41% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets35%
Neutral59%
R-leaning outlets6%
41% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
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Debate Drama Erupts in Florida Republican Governor’s Race | NewsRadio WIOD | The Ryan Gorman Show
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F
‘What have we become?’: Paul Renner rips Florida GOP for thwarting gubernatorial debates
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Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-02
Endorsements5 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage17 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks