Races · house · 2026 · Florida
house · open seat
Pia Dandiya vs Brian Mast
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 93% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+7) suggests Lean R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+18.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+34.9 (10th pctile) to R+2.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 93% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · lean-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +18.8
80% CI: R +34.9 → R +2.7 · win prob 7%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +19.3
80% CI R +23.4 → R +13.0
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.8
80% CI R +7.3 → R +2.3
CV MAE 1.97
consensusMarket-implied
R +10.3
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 14¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the FL-21 House seat?” | 14¢ | 85¢ | -2¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 16 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet14
2
Endorsements tracked
Pia Dandiya14 · 88%
Brian Mast2 · 12%
Total16
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DPia Dandiya14 endorsers
Most notable · Lori Berman · minority leader of the Florida Senate (2025–present) from the 31st district (2018–present)
Other9
Other · 9
- Jill Tokuda · HI-02 (2023–present)
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
- Annie Kuster · former NH-02 (2013–2025)
- Dave Aronberg · former state attorney for the Fifteenth Judicial Circuit Court of Florida (2013–2025)
- Democrats for Education Reform
- EMILYs List
- Elect Democratic Women
- Patrick Murphy · former FL-18 (2013–2017)
- Vote Mama
Elected officials4
Federal 1State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 4
- Lori Berman · minority leader of the Florida Senate (2025–present) from the 31st district (2018–present)
- Tina Polsky · state senator from the 29th district (2020–present)
- Arne Duncan · former U.S. Secretary of Education (2009–2016)
- Kelly Skidmore · state representative from the 92nd district (2006–2010, 2020–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- ASPIRE PAC
RBrian Mast2 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- AIPAC
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-15Brian MastH6FL18097 ↗
Receipts
$3.1M
Disburse
$2.3M
Cash on hand
$2.6M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Pia Dandiya
Receipts
$1.6M
Disburse
$403.5K
Cash on hand
$1.2M
Debts
$197.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$14.7K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$14.7K · 100%
Top spender
PAVC PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAVC PAC other · boosts R
| R | $14.7K | 100% | for Brian Mast |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- The Economist · May 5
Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Likely RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
17 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
17 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles17
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.29
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.17 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.29
Week-over-weekshift −0.17 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 35%
Neutral 59%
R 6%
41% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets35%
Neutral59%
R-leaning outlets6%
41% of outlets classified by editorial lean
G
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Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-15
Endorsements19 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage17 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks