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Races · house · 2026 · Florida · general · Democratic primary
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PhasesShowing the Democratic primary. Other views:general election
Democratic primary · August 18, 2026

Florida house Democratic primary

Field of 5 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.

← Florida houseFlorida house →
41 days to primary· 4 pollsLast poll 36d ago
Elijah Manley 59% to win the Democratic nominationupdated 11h ago · primary-struct-v1
Elijah Manley · 59%Debbie Wasserman Schultz · 40%Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick · 1%Dale Holness · 0%
Where this race stands
Verified

Showing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.

How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
72
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (16.7pp).
Forecast CI width56
16.7pp 80% interval
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8

Forecast · Democratic primary

primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 4 polls + fundamentals
1Elijah ManleyThe 2016 Green Party presidential primaries were a series of primaries, caucuses and state conventions in which voters elected delegates to …35.6% 27–4459% win
2Debbie Wasserman SchultzDeborah Wasserman Schultz is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for Florida's 25th congressional district, first elec…33.3% 25–4240% win
3Sheila Cherfilus-McCormickSheila Cherfilus-McCormick is an American politician and businesswoman who served as the U.S. representative for Florida's 20th congressiona…19.4% 11–281% win
4Dale HolnessThe 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Florida will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the 28 U.S. representatives …14.6% 6–23<1% win
5Luthor CampbellChallenger1.6% 0–10<1% win

All polls · 4 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popCherfilus-McCormickHolnessManleyCampbellSchultzLead
May 31Listener Group/Political Matrix News500 · LV31521239+18
Feb 27Listener Group/Political Matrix News400 · LV311335——+4
Feb 27Listener Group/Political Matrix News400 · LV3113351—+4
Feb 3Listener Group/Political Matrix News300 · LV351038——+3

Endorsements · Democratic primary · 9 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
7
2
Elijah Manley · 7Dale Holness · 2
DElijah Manley7 endorsers
Most notable · Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
Organizations3
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Celebrity1
Other1
DDale Holness2 endorsers
Most notable · Rudy Moise · doctor and candidate for this seat
Celebrity1
Elected officials1
Federal 0State 0Local 1
DSheila Cherfilus-McCormick0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DLuthor Campbell0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DDebbie Wasserman Schultz0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money in this primary

FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing —

No FEC committee filings yet for the Democratic primary candidates. Most primary candidates file quarterly; if the primary is recent the data may take a few weeks to appear.

Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 4deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements12 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks