Republican primary · August 18, 2026
Florida house Republican primary
Field of 2 Republican candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
82
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (19.4pp).
Forecast CI width65
19.4pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution65 / 100
Measured19.4pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Republican primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 1 poll + fundamentals1Keith GrossThe 2024 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent t…
2Evan PowerEvan Power is an American politician and political strategist serving as the chair of the Republican Party of Florida since 2024. Power serv…
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Gross | Power | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23 | Patriot Polling | 812 · LV | 34 | 32 | +2 |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 16 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetEvan Power · 10Keith Gross · 6
REvan Power10 endorsers
Most notable · James Uthmeier · attorney general of Florida (2025–present)
Elected officials10
Federal 9State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 10
- James Uthmeier · attorney general of Florida (2025–present)
- Aaron Bean · FL-04 (2023–present)
- Anna Paulina Luna · FL-13 (2023–present)
- Cory Mills · FL-07 (2023–present)
- John Rutherford · FL-05 (2017–present)
- Kat Cammack · FL-03 (2021–present)
- Mario Díaz-Balart · FL-26 (2003–present)
- Mike Haridopolos · FL-08 (2025–present)
- Randy Fine · FL-06 (2025–present)
- Vern Buchanan · FL-16 (2007–present)
RKeith Gross6 endorsers
Most notable · Dan Burton · former IN-05 (1983–2013)
Elected officials5
Federal 5State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 5
- Dan Burton · former IN-05 (1983–2013)
- David Rivera · former FL-25 (2011–2013)
- Greg Laughlin · former TX-14 (1989–1997)
- John E. Sweeney · former NY-20 (1999–2007)
- Steve Buyer · former IN-04 (1993–2011)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Log Cabin Republicans
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-06-18Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-18
Endorsements23 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks