Races · house · 2026 · Florida
house · open seat
Florida house
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 98% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+14) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+25.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+41.9 (10th pctile) to R+9.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 98% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +25.8
80% CI: R +41.9 → R +9.7 · win prob 2%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +34.1
80% CI R +38.9 → R +28.5
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.8
80% CI R +7.3 → R +2.3
CV MAE 1.97
consensusMarket-implied
R +11.3
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 12¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the FL-18 House seat?” | 12¢ | 87¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 1 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet1
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
Scott Franklin1 · 100%
Total1
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RScott Franklin1 endorser
Most notable · AIPAC
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- AIPAC
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Scott Franklin
Receipts
$635.0K
Disburse
$297.4K
Cash on hand
$819.5K
Debts
$298.5K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- The Economist · May 5
Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Likely RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
17 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
17 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles17
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.29
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.20 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.29
Week-over-weekshift +0.20 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 35%
Neutral 59%
R 6%
41% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets35%
Neutral59%
R-leaning outlets6%
41% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Florida U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
N
Florida Seventh Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
F
Poll shows Donald Trump underwater in home state of Florida heading into Midterms
N
Florida Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
N
Florida 23rd Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
Florida 13th Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
F
Florida Property Tax Amendment: Ballot Language Summary
W
Debate Drama Erupts in Florida Republican Governor’s Race | NewsRadio WIOD | The Ryan Gorman Show
L
2026 Florida governor’s race heats up as candidates make their case
F
‘What have we become?’: Paul Renner rips Florida GOP for thwarting gubernatorial debates
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Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements1 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage17 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks