Races · house · 2026 · Florida
house · open seat
Darren McAuley vs Laurel Lee
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 90% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+5) suggests Lean R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+15.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+31.9 (10th pctile) to tied (90th pctile), giving R a 90% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · lean-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +15.8
80% CI: R +31.9 → D +0.3 · win prob 10%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +14.0
80% CI R +19.2 → R +9.0
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.8
80% CI R +7.3 → R +2.3
CV MAE 1.97
consensusMarket-implied
R +9.4
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 16¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the FL-15 House seat?” | 16¢ | 85¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 7 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet3
4
Endorsements tracked
Darren McAuley3 · 43%
Laurel Lee4 · 57%
Total7
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RLaurel Lee4 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021; 2025–present)
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- AIPAC
- ClearPath Foundation
- Maggie's List
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021; 2025–present)
DDarren McAuley3 endorsers
Most notable · Hank Johnson · GA-04 (2007–present)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- Alexander Vindman · former director of European Affairs for the National Security Council (2018–2020)
- VoteVets
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Hank Johnson · GA-04 (2007–present)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Laurel Lee
Receipts
$1.9M
Disburse
$612.0K
Cash on hand
$1.7M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Darren McAuley
Receipts
$532.1K
Disburse
$265.5K
Cash on hand
$266.5K
Debts
$31.4K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 5
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
18 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
18 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles18
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.28
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.10 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.28
Week-over-weekshift +0.10 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 33%
Neutral 61%
R 6%
39% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets33%
Neutral61%
R-leaning outlets6%
39% of outlets classified by editorial lean
P
A Jolly campaign in Florida amid an angry Democratic summer
N
Florida Seventh Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
F
Democratic poll shows Darren McAuley within striking distance of Gus Bilirakis
D
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N
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Poll shows Donald Trump underwater in home state of Florida heading into Midterms
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G
Where Florida baseball ranked in final USA Today Poll, rankings
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements7 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage18 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks