Races · house · 2026 · Florida
house · open seat
Kathy Castor vs Rocky Rochford
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 61% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+5) suggests Lean D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+3.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+12.4 (10th pctile) to D+19.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 61% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · lean-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +3.7
80% CI: R +12.4 → D +19.8 · win prob 61%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +12.6
80% CI D +7.8 → D +20.9
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.8
80% CI R +7.3 → R +2.3
CV MAE 1.97
consensusMarket-implied
R +0.6
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 48¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat?” | 48¢ | 53¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 31 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet31
Endorsements tracked
Kathy Castor31 · 100%
Rocky Rochford0 · 0%
Total31
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DKathy Castor31 endorsers
Most notable · Tyler Sirois · majority leader of the Florida House of Representatives (2024–present) from the 31st district (2018–present)
Elected officials21
Federal 3State 13Local 3
Elected officials · 21
- Tyler Sirois · majority leader of the Florida House of Representatives (2024–present) from the 31st district (2018–present)
- Jeff Brandes · former state senator from the 24th district (2012–2022)
- Ronda Storms · former state senator from the 10th district (2006–2012)
- James Uthmeier · Attorney General of Florida (2025–present)
- Mike Ezell · MS-4 (2023–present)
- Neal Dunn · FL-2 (2017–present)
- Chad Chronister · Hillsborough County sheriff (2017–present)
- Fiona McFarland · state representative from the 73rd district (2020–present)
- Grady Judd · Polk County sheriff (2005–present)
- Jennifer Canady · state representative from the 50th district (2022–present)
- Juan Carlos Porras · state representative from the 119th district (2022–present)
- Mike Redondo · state representative from the 118th district (2023–present)
- Morgan Luttrell · TX-08 (2023-present)
- Pasco County · Pasco County sheriff
- Patt Maney · state representative from the 4th district (2020–present)
- Paula Stark · state representative from the 47th district (2022–present)
- Rick Roth · former state representative from the 94th district (2016–2024)
- Sam Garrison · state representative from the 11th district (2020–present)
- Sam Killebrew · former state representative from the 48th district (2016–2024)
- Spencer Roach · former state representative from the 76th district (2018–2024)
- Wyman Duggan · speaker pro tempore of the Florida House of Representatives (2024–present) from the 12th district (2018–present)
Organizations7
Organizations · 7
- AIPAC
- EMILYs List
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- Maggie's List
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Sierra Club
- United Auto Workers
Other3
Other · 3
- Blaise Ingoglia · Chief Financial Officer of Florida (2025–present)
- Libertarian · rt ( Libertarian )
- Wilton Simpson · Florida Commissioner of Agriculture (2023–present)
RRocky Rochford0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-02-11Kathy CastorH6FL11126 ↗
Receipts
$876.0K
Disburse
$386.2K
Cash on hand
$716.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Rocky Rochford
Receipts
$62.4K
Disburse
$43.4K
Cash on hand
$21.1K
Debts
$148.8K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$10
D side
$10 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
SIERRA CLUB INDEPEN…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 100% | for Kathy Castor |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean D2
Lean D · 2 raters
- The Economist · May 5
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Lean R3
Lean R · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Lean RThe Economist
Lean DInside Elections
Lean RSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean RSplit Ticket
Lean DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
16 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
16 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles16
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.31
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.25 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.31
Week-over-weekshift +0.25 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 38%
Neutral 56%
R 6%
44% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets38%
Neutral56%
R-leaning outlets6%
44% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Florida U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
N
Florida Seventh Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
F
Poll shows Donald Trump underwater in home state of Florida heading into Midterms
N
Florida Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
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Florida 23rd Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
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Florida 13th Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
W
Debate Drama Erupts in Florida Republican Governor’s Race | NewsRadio WIOD | The Ryan Gorman Show
L
2026 Florida governor’s race heats up as candidates make their case
F
‘What have we become?’: Paul Renner rips Florida GOP for thwarting gubernatorial debates
W
DeSantis joins calls for Florida GOP governor debate as party bars Fishback from June event
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-02-11
Endorsements31 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage16 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks