Races · house · 2026 · Florida
house · open seat
Leela Gray vs Anna Paulina Luna
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 1 poll has landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 80% R
Polling average rates this race Lean R (R+2.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+10.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+26.8 (10th pctile) to D+5.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 80% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 93/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · lean-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
93
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement49
9.9pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution49 / 100
Measured9.9pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +10.7
80% CI: R +26.8 → D +5.4 · win prob 20%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +12.8
80% CI R +15.1 → R +12.6
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +2.9
80% CI R +7.3 → D +1.4
CV MAE 3.42
consensusMarket-implied
R +6.0
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 25¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 13 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 25% · polls 39%.
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19 | Public Policy Polling+1For · Internal D-aligned | 616 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 39 · 41 |
Endorsements · 13 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet10
3
Endorsements tracked
Leela Gray10 · 77%
Anna Paulina Luna3 · 23%
Total13
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DLeela Gray10 endorsers
Most notable · Alex Sink · former Chief Financial Officer of Florida (2007–2011) and nominee for governor in 2010
Elected officials6
Federal 0State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 6
- Alex Sink · former Chief Financial Officer of Florida (2007–2011) and nominee for governor in 2010
- Ben Diamond · former state representative from the 68th district (2016–2022)
- Jason Crow · Colorado's 6th congressional district
- Kathy Castor · Florida's 14th congressional district
- Pat Ryan · New York's 19th congressional district
- Ted Lieu · California's 36th congressional district
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- EMILYs List
- VoteVets
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Paul Eaton · former deputy chief of staff for the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command
Other1
Other · 1
- Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority · munications and marketing for the Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority and nominee for this district in 2024
RAnna Paulina Luna3 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021; 2025–present)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- AIPAC
- Club for Growth · PAC
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021; 2025–present)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-13Anna Paulina LunaH0FL13158 ↗
Receipts
$2.3M
Disburse
$1.1M
Cash on hand
$1.4M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Leela Gray
Receipts
$565.0K
Disburse
$64.8K
Cash on hand
$500.2K
Debts
$14.8K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$129.4K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$129.4K · 100%
Top spender
LATINOS FOR CONSERV…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LATINOS FOR CONSERVATIVE VALUES super pac · boosts R
| R | $125.7K | 97% | for Anna Paulina Luna |
| Club for Growth PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $3.3K | 3% | for Anna Paulina Luna |
| FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $372.76 | 0% | for Anna Paulina Luna |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R5
Likely R · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 5
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Likely RThe Economist
Likely RInside Elections
Likely RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RSplit Ticket
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
17 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
17 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles17
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.29
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.20 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.29
Week-over-weekshift +0.20 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 35%
Neutral 59%
R 6%
41% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets35%
Neutral59%
R-leaning outlets6%
41% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
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F
‘What have we become?’: Paul Renner rips Florida GOP for thwarting gubernatorial debates
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-13
Endorsements13 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage17 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks