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Races · house · 2026 · Florida
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house · open seat

Florida house

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Safe RR +31.6 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
1% (D)
99% Patronis (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin R +31.6 · 80% CI R+47.7 → R+15.5 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.7%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 5¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+18) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+31.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+47.7 (10th pctile) to R+15.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +31.6
80% CI: R +47.7 → R +15.5 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +38.8
80% CI R +43.0 → R +32.6
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.8
80% CI R +7.3 → R +2.3
CV MAE 1.97
consensusMarket-implied
R +16.3
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 5¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
0¢10¢20¢30¢40¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Republican Party win the FL-01 House seat?”
5¢95¢+0¢—+0

Endorsements · 113 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
Patronis · 100%113
RJimmy Patronis113 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials71
Federal 22State 25Local 17
Other16
Organizations15
Celebrity11

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-09-15
Jimmy PatronisH6FL01390 ↗
Receipts
$3.1M
Disburse
$2.6M
Cash on hand
$507.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$2.2M
D side
$151.4K · 7%
R side
$2.1M · 93%
Top spender
CONSERVATIVE FUTURE…
For / against split
For Valimont $105.5K
Against Patronis $45.9K
For Patronis $2.1M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CONSERVATIVE FUTURE FUNDR$1.2M52%for Jimmy Patronis
DEFEND AMERICAN JOBSR$558.8K25%for Jimmy Patronis
Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE ActionR$166.6K7%for Jimmy Patronis
CONSERVATIVES FOR AMERICAN EXCELLENCE INC.R$59.1K3%for Jimmy Patronis
CENTER FOR VOTER INFORMATION (CVI)D$40.8K2%against Jimmy Patronis

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R5
Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jun 17
The Economist
Safe R
May 5
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe R
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 5, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 3, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-09-15
Endorsements113 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks