Races · house · 2026 · Delaware

house · open seat

Delaware house

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Safe DD +25.9 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
85% (D)
15% (R)
Win probability
Democrat85% (D)
Republican15% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +25.9
80% CIR+6.4 → D+58.2
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin D +25.9 · 80% CI R+6.4 → D+58.2 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.8%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 94¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 85% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+8) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+25.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+6.4 (10th pctile) to D+58.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 85% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +25.9

80% CI: R +6.4 → D +58.2 · win prob 85%

R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	25.23pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models2 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +17.2

80% CI D +11.2 → D +23.9

CV MAE 8.51

consensusMarket-implied

D +14.8

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

85¢90¢95¢100¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the DE-AL House seat?”	94¢	7¢	+0¢	—	+0

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D4

Cook Political Report

Safe D

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe D

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 2, 2026Safe Dmodel

Jun 14, 2026Likely Rmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 5, 2026Safe Dmodel

May 3, 2026Lean Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago

FEC filings—no filings yet

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks