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Races · house · 2026 · Connecticut
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house · open seat

Jahana Hayes vs Michele Botelho

← Connecticut houseDelaware house →
Likely DD +14.6 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 4 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
88% Hayes (D)
12% Botelho (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin D +14.6 · 80% CI R+1.5 → D+30.7 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.8%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 48¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 88% D · market gap 85pp

With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe R (D win prob 3%, market-derived).

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+14.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+1.5 (10th pctile) to D+30.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 88% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

⚠ Model and market disagree sharply. Model says D wins at 88%, market says 3% — 85pp gap (opposite winners). Either side could be wrong — worth a closer look.

CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping · market-disagreement-large
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +14.6
80% CI: R +1.5 → D +30.7 · win prob 88%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +5.5
80% CI R +14.1 → D +19.9
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +0.4
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 48¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
20¢30¢40¢50¢60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢370 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWJul 2Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Democratic Party win the CT-05 House seat?”
94¢3¢+0¢—+45
Kalshi
“CT-05 House winner?”
3¢4¢+0¢$0K-45
Polymarket sits 45¢ above consensus.

Endorsements · 13 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
13Hayes · 100%
DJahana Hayes13 endorsers
Most notable · Stephen Harding · minority leader of the Connecticut State House of Representatives (2024-present) from the 30th district (2023-present)
Organizations10
Other3
RMichele Botelho0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-09-10
Jahana HayesH8CT05245 ↗
Receipts
$1.1M
Disburse
$641.2K
Cash on hand
$985.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Michele BotelhoOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$56.5K
Disburse
$51.0K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$130.34
D side
$130.34 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
GIVEGREEN UNITED AC…
For / against split
For Hayes $130.34
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTIOND$130.34100%for Jahana Hayes

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D4
Likely D1
Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jun 17
The Economist
Safe D
May 5
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe D
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 2, 2026Likely Dmodel
Jun 21, 2026Safe Dmodel
Jun 4, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 5, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 3, 2026Lean Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-09-10
Endorsements17 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks