Races · house · 2026 · CT
house · open seat
Jahana Hayes vs Michele Botelho
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified Tilt D · model 75% D
tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
D +9.4
80% CI: R +8.1 → D +26.9 · win prob 75%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 181 |
| Residual σ | 13.66pt |
| Generated | 5/6/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models1 models
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
D +9.4
80% CI R +8.1 → D +26.9
CV MAE 13.66
Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater
3 raters| Rater | Rating | Updated | Poll D-marg. | Rater marg. | Δ poll−rater |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Safe D | Jan 15 | — | +18.0 | — |
| Inside Elections | Safe D | Jun 13 | — | +18.0 | — |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely D | Jun 13 | — | +9.0 | — |
Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.
last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
- 5/4/2026 Tilt D via pvi
In the news
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Pete Buttigieg supports CT candidates . It one of many endorsementscourant.com · 2d ago -
Endorsements pile up in CT 1st District ahead of conventionhartfordbusiness.com · 2d ago - At the Races : Keystone State holds midterm keysrollcall.com · 3d ago
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FISA clears House , with only 1 CT congressperson in favorctmirror.org · 10d ago - National Conference at American University : 250 Years of First Ladies Making Historynewswise.com · 10d ago
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These CT residents have spent the most in political contributionsnhregister.com · 11d ago -
In a fight over campaign ads , Bronin says Larson is breaking the rulesthehour.com · 11d ago -
Bronin criticizes Larson over publicly funded digital adscourant.com · 11d ago - Meet The Democrats : Democratic State Rep Candidates Discuss Community Issues At Public Forumnewtownbee.com · 13d ago
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CT veteran files federal lawsuit over VA denial of child claimctmirror.org · 13d ago
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