Races · house · 2026 · Connecticut
house · open seat
Connecticut house
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 98% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+13) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+24.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+8.8 (10th pctile) to D+41.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 98% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +24.9
80% CI: D +8.8 → D +41.0 · win prob 98%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +26.0
80% CI D +20.3 → D +38.1
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.0
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 93¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the CT-04 House seat?” | 93¢ | 4¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 1 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet1
Endorsements tracked
Jim Himes1 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total1
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJim Himes1 endorser
Most notable · Planned Parenthood Action Fund
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Jim Himes
Receipts
$1.1M
Disburse
$839.5K
Cash on hand
$2.3M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D5
Safe D · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 5
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DThe Economist
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
6 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
6 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles6
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.33
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift 0.00 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.33
Week-over-weekshift 0.00 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 33%
Neutral 67%
33% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets33%
Neutral67%
R-leaning outlets0%
33% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Connecticut First Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
Who Is Ahead in the Connecticut Governor's Race? Latest 2026 Election Polls
Y
Six Connecticut House and Senate election races to watch this summer
C
Six Connecticut House and Senate election races to watch this summer
C
Leaked records tie Connecticut's Jim Himes to secretive network backed by Peter Thiel
C
Connecticut could see rare four-way congressional primary in 1st House District
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements1 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage6 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks