Races · house · 2026 · Connecticut
house · open seat
Joe Courtney vs George Austin
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 90% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+4) suggests Lean D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+16.4 with an 80% CI ranging from tied (10th pctile) to D+32.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 90% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · lean-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +16.4
80% CI: D +0.3 → D +32.5 · win prob 90%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +8.9
80% CI D +5.5 → D +20.3
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.0
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 93¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the CT-02 House seat?” | 93¢ | 8¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 4 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet4
Endorsements tracked
Joe Courtney4 · 100%
George Austin0 · 0%
Total4
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJoe Courtney4 endorsers
Most notable · J Street PAC
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- J Street PAC
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- National Education Association
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
RGeorge Austin0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-19Joe CourtneyH2CT02112 ↗
Receipts
$589.1K
Disburse
$419.8K
Cash on hand
$520.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
George Austin
Receipts
$268.0K
Disburse
$64.3K
Cash on hand
$203.6K
Debts
$240.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$10
D side
$10 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
SIERRA CLUB INDEPEN…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 100% | for Joe Courtney |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D5
Safe D · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 5
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DThe Economist
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
6 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
6 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles6
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.33
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.50 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.33
Week-over-weekshift +0.50 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 33%
Neutral 67%
33% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets33%
Neutral67%
R-leaning outlets0%
33% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
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Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-19
Endorsements5 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage6 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks