Races · house · 2026 · Colorado
house · open seat
Jessica Killin vs Jeff Crank
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 81% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+5) suggests Lean R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+10.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+27.0 (10th pctile) to D+5.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 81% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · lean-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +10.9
80% CI: R +27.0 → D +5.2 · win prob 19%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 2 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +13.1
80% CI R +15.1 → R +9.6
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +3.0
80% CI R +6.8 → D +0.8
CV MAE 2.96
consensusMarket-implied
R +5.2
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 28¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 12 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 28% · polls 40%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the CO-05 House seat?” | 28¢ | 72¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | Global Strategy Group+1For · Internal D-aligned | 450 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +2.6d lean | 40 · 43 |
| Nov 2 | Global Strategy GroupFor · Internal D-aligned | 450 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +2.6d lean | 40 · 43 |
Endorsements · 20 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet17
3
Endorsements tracked
Jessica Killin17 · 85%
Jeff Crank3 · 15%
Total20
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJessica Killin17 endorsers
Most notable · Brittany Pettersen · CO-7 (2023–present)
Elected officials10
Federal 10State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 10
- Brittany Pettersen · CO-7 (2023–present)
- Diana DeGette · CO-1 (1997–present)
- Greg Stanton · AZ-04 (2019–present)
- Jason Crow · CO-6 (2019–present)
- Joe Neguse · CO-2 (2019–present)
- Lois Frankel · FL-22 (2013–present)
- Suzan DelBene · WA-01 (2012–present)
- John Hickenlooper · Colorado (2021–present)
- Max Rose · former NY-11 (2019–2021)
- Michael Bennet · Colorado (2009–present)
Organizations7
Organizations · 7
- DCCC · Red to Blue
- EMILYs List
- Elect Democratic Women
- Human Rights Campaign
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- New Democrat Coalition Action Fund
- VoteVets
RJeff Crank3 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- AIPAC
- Americans for Prosperity
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
IMatt Cavanaugh0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Jessica Killin
Receipts
$2.7M
Disburse
$1.4M
Cash on hand
$1.4M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Jeff Crank
Receipts
$2.0M
Disburse
$771.4K
Cash on hand
$1.3M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Matt Cavanaugh
Receipts
$164.6K
Disburse
$158.9K
Cash on hand
$5.8K
Debts
$26.8K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean R1
Lean R · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jul 5
Likely R4
Likely R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 5
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Likely RThe Economist
Likely RInside Elections
Likely RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RSplit Ticket
Lean RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
21 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
21 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles21
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.14
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.43 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.14
Week-over-weekshift −0.43 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 14%
Neutral 86%
14% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets14%
Neutral86%
R-leaning outlets0%
14% of outlets classified by editorial lean
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Page 1 of 3
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements20 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage21 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks