Races · house · 2026 · Colorado
house · open seat
Eileen Laubacher vs Lauren Boebert
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 91% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+9) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+16.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+33.0 (10th pctile) to R+0.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 91% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +16.9
80% CI: R +33.0 → R +0.8 · win prob 9%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +23.1
80% CI R +32.5 → R +13.5
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +5.6
80% CI R +8.7 → R +2.5
CV MAE 2.38
consensusMarket-implied
R +3.3
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 36¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the CO-04 House seat?” | 36¢ | 61¢ | +2¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 8 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet6
2
Endorsements tracked
Eileen Laubacher6 · 75%
Lauren Boebert2 · 25%
Total8
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DEileen Laubacher6 endorsers
Most notable · Brittany Pettersen · CO-7 (2023–present)
Elected officials4
Federal 4State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 4
- Brittany Pettersen · CO-7 (2023–present)
- Jason Crow · CO-6 (2019–present)
- Ed Perlmutter · former CO-07 (2007–2023)
- Max Rose · former NY-11 (2019–2021)
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- 2024 U.S. house · e, communications professional, 2024 U.S. house nominee and former candidate for this seat
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- VoteVets
RLauren Boebert2 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Maggie's List
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-31Lauren BoebertH0CO03165 ↗
Receipts
$950.1K
Disburse
$898.3K
Cash on hand
$210.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Eileen Laubacher
Receipts
$10.0M
Disburse
$6.6M
Cash on hand
$3.3M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$5.5K
D side
$61.99 · 1%
R side
$5.5K · 99%
Top spender
FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $5.5K | 99% | for Lauren Boebert |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean R1
Lean R · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- The Economist · May 5
Safe R3
Safe R · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Likely RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Lean RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-31
Endorsements15 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks