Races · house · 2026 · CO
house · open seat

Alex Kelloff vs Jeff Hurd

← CO house CO house →
Likely R R +7.0 · 176 days to election · 3 polls · 0 markets Last poll 59d ago Rating 1d ago
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 95% R

likely-r · uncertainty-high
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
R +23.4
80% CI: R +40.9 → R +5.8 · win prob 5%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used3
Days to election181
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models1 models
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
R +23.4
80% CI R +40.9 → R +5.8
CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 3 results

3 of 3 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
3/12/2026Ragnar Research Partners1.00R400±5.0LV
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+2
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 80 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Jeff Hurd 46.0 · Alex Kelloff 41.0pollarch
1/12/2026Expedition Strategies1.00L400±4.9LV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+3
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 118d old
    Poll was fielded 118 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 9 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Jeff Hurd 48.0 · Alex Kelloff 39.0pollarch
11/3/2025Global Strategy Group1.00—450±4.6LV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+3
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 188d old
    Poll was fielded 188 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Jeff Crank 43.0 · Jessica Killin 40.0 · Matt Cavanaugh 5.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe R Feb 6 -7.0 -18.0 +11.0
Inside Elections Safe R Mar 7 -7.0 -18.0 +11.0
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R Apr 10 -7.0 -18.0 +11.0

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 8 weeks ago (3/12/2026) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/4/2026 Likely R via pvi

In the news

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