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Races · house · 2026 · Colorado
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Colorado house

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Safe DD +40.6 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
99% DeGette (D)
1% (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin D +40.6 · 80% CI D+24.5 → D+56.7 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.9%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 94¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+29) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+40.6 with an 80% CI ranging from D+24.5 (10th pctile) to D+56.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +40.6
80% CI: D +24.5 → D +56.7 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +56.6
80% CI D +49.3 → D +58.2
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +5.6
80% CI R +8.7 → R +2.5
CV MAE 2.38
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.8
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
85¢90¢95¢100¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Republican Party win the CO-01 House seat?”
94¢6¢+0¢—+0

Endorsements · 20 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
20DeGette · 100%
DDiana DeGette20 endorsers
Most notable · Brittany Pettersen · CO-7 (2023–present)
Organizations14
Elected officials6
Federal 6State 0Local 0

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-29
Diana DeGetteH6CO01141 ↗
Receipts
$1.4M
Disburse
$1.2M
Cash on hand
$459.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.4M
D side
$1.4M · 100%
R side
$6.1K · 0%
Top spender
Pro-Choice Majority…
For / against split
For DeGette $1.4M
Against DeGette $6.1K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
Pro-Choice Majority ActionD$1.3M89%for Diana DeGette
MILE HIGH ACCOUNTABILITY PROJECTD$135.0K10%for Diana DeGette
National Association of Realtors Political Action CommitteeD$11.0K1%for Diana DeGette
Forward Blue PACR$6.1K0%against Diana DeGette

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D5
Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jun 17
The Economist
Safe D
May 5
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe D
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 5, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 3, 2026Lean Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-29
Endorsements45 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks