Races · house · 2026 · California
house · open seat
Josh Harder vs John McBride
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 85% D
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 94%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+12.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+3.3 (10th pctile) to D+28.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 85% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +12.8
80% CI: R +3.3 → D +28.9 · win prob 85%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +4.8
80% CI D +2.3 → D +13.4
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +10.5
80% CI D +8.9 → D +12.1
CV MAE 1.24
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.8
no interval
market-implied
Endorsements · 18 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet18
Endorsements tracked
Josh Harder18 · 100%
John McBride0 · 0%
Total18
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJosh Harder18 endorsers
Most notable · Mark DeSaulnier · CA-10 (2015–present)
Organizations16
Organizations · 16
- AIPAC
- California Democratic Party
- California Environmental Voters
- California Federation of Labor Unions
- Council for a Livable World
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- J Street PAC
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- National Union of Healthcare Workers
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection
- Reproductive Freedom for All
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Mark DeSaulnier · CA-10 (2015–present)
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Bay Area Reporter
RJohn McBride0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-10-16Josh HarderH8CA10126 ↗
Receipts
$3.7M
Disburse
$976.1K
Cash on hand
$4.4M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
John McBride
Receipts
$30.2K
Disburse
$28.9K
Cash on hand
$1.4K
Debts
$26.6K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$5.6K
D side
$1.1K · 19%
R side
$4.6K · 81%
Top spender
THE CONSERVATIVE CA…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTY pac · boosts R
| R | $4.6K | 81% | against Josh Harder |
| DEMOCRACY THROUGH VOTING super pac · boosts D
| D | $800 | 14% | for Josh Harder |
| GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $293.34 | 5% | for Josh Harder |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D5
Safe D · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 5
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DThe Economist
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-10-16
Endorsements18 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks