Races · house · 2026 · California

house · open seat

California house

← California house California house →

Safe DD +23.5 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
97% Jacobs (D)
3% (R)
Win probability
Sara Jacobs97% (D)
Republican3% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +23.5
80% CID+7.4 → D+39.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin D +23.5 · 80% CI D+7.4 → D+39.6 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.8%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 94¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 97% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+13) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+23.5 with an 80% CI ranging from D+7.4 (10th pctile) to D+39.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 97% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +23.5

80% CI: D +7.4 → D +39.6 · win prob 97%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +23.4

80% CI R +19.3 → D +40.9

CV MAE 8.51

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

D +10.5

80% CI D +8.9 → D +12.1

CV MAE 1.24

consensusMarket-implied

D +14.8

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

85¢90¢95¢100¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the CA-51 House seat?”	94¢	4¢	+0¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 9 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

9Jacobs · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Sara Jacobs9 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total9
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DSara Jacobs9 endorsers

Most notable · California Democratic Party

Organizations9

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-03-05

Sara JacobsH8CA49074 ↗

Receipts

$1.6M

Disburse

$1.4M

Cash on hand

$270.1K

Debts

$350.0K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$8.08

D side

$8.08 · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

PLANNED PARENTHOOD …

For / against split

For Jacobs $8.08

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
PLANNED PARENTHOOD ACTION FUND OF THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST PAC	D	$8.08	100%	for Sara Jacobs

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D5

Cook Political Report

Safe D

Jun 17

The Economist

Safe D

May 5

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe D

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 5, 2026Safe Dmodel

May 3, 2026Lean Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-03-05

Endorsements9 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks