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Races · house · 2026 · California
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house · open seat

Lou Correa vs David Pan

← California houseCalifornia house →
Safe DD +22.3 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
96% Correa (D)
4% Pan (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin D +22.3 · 80% CI D+6.3 → D+38.4 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.8%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 95¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 96% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+11) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+22.3 with an 80% CI ranging from D+6.2 (10th pctile) to D+38.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 96% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +22.3
80% CI: D +6.3 → D +38.4 · win prob 96%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +20.8
80% CI R +20.8 → D +31.2
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +10.5
80% CI D +8.9 → D +12.1
CV MAE 1.24
consensusMarket-implied
D +16.4
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 95¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
85¢90¢95¢100¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Republican Party win the CA-46 House seat?”
95¢6¢+1¢—+0

Endorsements · 4 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
3Correa · 75%
Pan · 25%1
DLou Correa3 endorsers
Most notable · California Federation of Labor Unions
Organizations3
RDavid Pan1 endorser
Most notable · California Republican Party
Organizations1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-27
Lou CorreaH6CA46116 ↗
Receipts
$1.1M
Disburse
$599.7K
Cash on hand
$2.3M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
David PanOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$72.7K
Disburse
$73.7K
Cash on hand
$1.9K
Debts
$28.5K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$107.4K
D side
$107.4K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
Protect Progress
For / against split
For Correa $107.4K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
Protect ProgressD$107.4K100%for Lou Correa
PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES' COMMUNITY ACTION FUND PACD$14.440%for Lou Correa

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D5
Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jun 17
The Economist
Safe D
May 5
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe D
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 5, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 3, 2026Lean Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-27
Endorsements4 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks