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Races · house · 2026 · California
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Derek Tran vs Mark Leonard

← California houseCalifornia house →
Likely DD +6.3 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 4 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
69% Tran (D)
31% Leonard (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin D +6.3 · 80% CI R+9.8 → D+22.4 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.8%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 89¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 69% D · market gap 20pp

With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 89%, market-derived).

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+6.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+9.8 (10th pctile) to D+22.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 69% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

Model and market disagree: Model says D wins at 69%, market says 89% — 20pp gap.

CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · market-disagreement-medium
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +6.3
80% CI: R +9.8 → D +22.4 · win prob 69%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +3.9
80% CI R +14.6 → D +13.0
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +10.5
80% CI D +8.9 → D +12.1
CV MAE 1.24
consensusMarket-implied
D +11.5
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 89¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
60¢70¢80¢90¢370 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWJul 2Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Republican Party win the CA-45 House seat?”
89¢11¢+1¢—-0
Kalshi
“CA-45 House winner?”
89¢12¢-1¢$0K+0

Endorsements · 16 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
16Tran · 100%
DDerek Tran16 endorsers
Most notable · Brady Campaign
Organizations16
RMark Leonard0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-02-25
Derek TranH4CA45170 ↗
Receipts
$4.2M
Disburse
$1.8M
Cash on hand
$2.8M
Debts
$25.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Mark LeonardOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$25.9K
Disburse
$7.8K
Cash on hand
$18.2K
Debts
$17.8K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$332.9K
D side
$328.3K · 99%
R side
$4.6K · 1%
Top spender
LCV Victory Fund
For / against split
For Tran $294.8K
Against Steel $33.5K
Against Tran $4.6K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
LCV Victory FundD$284.0K85%for Derek Tran
Orange County PACD$10.0K3%for Derek Tran
THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTYR$4.6K1%against Derek Tran
GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTIOND$428.660%for Derek Tran
INDIGO PACD$317.270%for Derek Tran

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D1
Likely D1
Lean D2
Tilt D1
Cook Political Report
Lean D
Jun 17
The Economist
Likely D
May 5
Inside Elections
Tilt D
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe D
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 14, 2026Likely Dmodel
Jun 4, 2026Tilt Dmodel
May 11, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 5, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 3, 2026Lean Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-02-25
Endorsements16 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks