Races · house · 2026 · California
house · open seat
Hector De La Torre vs Mitch Clemmons
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 79% D · market gap 15pp
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 94%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+10.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+5.9 (10th pctile) to D+26.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 79% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Model and market disagree: Model says D wins at 79%, market says 94% — 15pp gap.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · market-disagreement-medium
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +10.2
80% CI: R +5.9 → D +26.3 · win prob 79%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +1.2
80% CI R +17.0 → D +13.0
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +10.5
80% CI D +8.9 → D +12.1
CV MAE 1.24
consensusMarket-implied
D +15.0
no interval
market-implied
Endorsements · 8 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet8
Endorsements tracked
Hector De La Torre8 · 100%
Mitch Clemmons0 · 0%
Total8
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DHector De La Torre8 endorsers
Most notable · Alan Lowenthal · former CA-47 (2013–2023)
Elected officials6
Federal 5State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 6
- Alan Lowenthal · former CA-47 (2013–2023)
- Gloria Negrete McLeod · former CA-35 (2013-2015)
- Grace Napolitano · former CA-31 (1999–2025)
- Henry Waxman · former CA-33 (1975–2015)
- Josh Lowenthal · speaker pro tempore of the California State Assembly (2024–present) from AD-69 (2022–present)
- Rick Lehman · former CA-19 (1983-1995)
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- La Opinión
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- California Environmental Voters
RMitch Clemmons0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-27Hector De La TorreH2CA39086 ↗
Receipts
$555.0K
Disburse
$399.8K
Cash on hand
$155.2K
Debts
$797.56
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$12.4K
D side
$12.4K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
People for Effectiv…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| People for Effective and Ethical Leadership other · boosts D
| D | $8.7K | 70% | for Hector De La Torre |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D5
Safe D · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 5
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DThe Economist
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-27
Endorsements9 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks