NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2026 · California
</> Embed
house · open seat

Norma Torres vs Mike Cargile

← California houseCalifornia house →
Safe DD +20.3 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
95% Torres (D)
5% Cargile (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin D +20.3 · 80% CI D+4.2 → D+36.4 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.8%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 94¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 25d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 95% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+8) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+20.3 with an 80% CI ranging from D+4.2 (10th pctile) to D+36.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 95% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +20.3
80% CI: D +4.2 → D +36.4 · win prob 95%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +17.2
80% CI D +11.2 → D +23.9
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +10.5
80% CI D +8.9 → D +12.1
CV MAE 1.24
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.8
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
85¢90¢95¢100¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Democratic Party win the CA-35 House seat?”
94¢2¢+0¢—+0

Endorsements · 10 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
10Torres · 100%
DNorma Torres10 endorsers
Most notable · AIPAC
Organizations10
RMike Cargile0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-03-26
Norma TorresH4CA35031 ↗
Receipts
$629.5K
Disburse
$544.7K
Cash on hand
$388.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Mike CargileOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$4.5K
Disburse
$2.3K
Cash on hand
$2.6K
Debts
$13.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$28.96
D side
$28.96 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
PLANNED PARENTHOOD …
For / against split
For Torres $28.96
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES' COMMUNITY ACTION FUND PACD$28.96100%for Norma Torres

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D5
Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jun 17
The Economist
Safe D
May 5
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe D
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Jun 4, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 5, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 3, 2026Lean Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-03-26
Endorsements10 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks