Races · house · 2026 · California
house · open seat
California house
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+28) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+37.0 with an 80% CI ranging from D+20.9 (10th pctile) to D+53.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +37.0
80% CI: D +20.9 → D +53.0 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +55.8
80% CI D +20.5 → D +64.2
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +10.5
80% CI D +8.9 → D +12.1
CV MAE 1.24
consensusMarket-implied
D +15.2
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the CA-34 House seat?” | 94¢ | 3¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 10 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet10
Endorsements tracked
Jimmy Gomez10 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total10
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJimmy Gomez10 endorsers
Most notable · AIPAC
Organizations10
Organizations · 10
- AIPAC
- California Democratic Party
- California Environmental Voters
- California Federation of Labor Unions
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- League of Conservation Voters
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Sierra Club
- Stonewall Democratic Club
ILoren Colin0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-24Jimmy GomezH8CA34266 ↗
Receipts
$1.1M
Disburse
$370.5K
Cash on hand
$793.5K
Debts
$93.8K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Loren Colin
Receipts
$9.1K
Disburse
$5.6K
Cash on hand
$3.5K
Debts
$2.5K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$10.18
D side
$10.18 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
SIERRA CLUB INDEPEN…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 98% | for Jimmy Gomez |
| PLANNED PARENTHOOD ADVOCACY PROJECT LOS ANGELES COUNTY ACTION FUND super pac · boosts D
| D | $0.18 | 2% | for Jimmy Gomez |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D5
Safe D · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 5
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DThe Economist
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-24
Endorsements15 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks