Races · house · 2026 · California
house · open seat
California house
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 93% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+7) suggests Lean D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+18.2 with an 80% CI ranging from D+2.1 (10th pctile) to D+34.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 93% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · lean-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +18.2
80% CI: D +2.1 → D +34.3 · win prob 93%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +12.7
80% CI R +28.3 → D +22.5
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +10.5
80% CI D +8.9 → D +12.1
CV MAE 1.24
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the CA-33 House seat?” | 94¢ | 7¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 12 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet12
Endorsements tracked
Pete Aguilar12 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total12
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DPete Aguilar12 endorsers
Most notable · AIPAC
Organizations12
Organizations · 12
- AIPAC
- California Democratic Party
- California Environmental Voters
- California Federation of Labor Unions
- Giffords
- J Street PAC
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- National Union of Healthcare Workers
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-03-26Pete AguilarH2CA31125 ↗
Receipts
$4.2M
Disburse
$3.5M
Cash on hand
$3.3M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$28.97
D side
$28.97 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
PLANNED PARENTHOOD …
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES' COMMUNITY ACTION FUND PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $28.97 | 100% | for Pete Aguilar |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D5
Safe D · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 5
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DThe Economist
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
9 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
9 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles9
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.33
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift 0.00 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.33
Week-over-weekshift 0.00 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 33%
Neutral 67%
33% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets33%
Neutral67%
R-leaning outlets0%
33% of outlets classified by editorial lean
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Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-03-26
Endorsements12 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage9 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks