Races · house · 2026 · California
house · open seat
Gil Cisneros vs Eric Ching
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 95% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+10) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+20.8 with an 80% CI ranging from D+4.7 (10th pctile) to D+36.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 95% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +20.8
80% CI: D +4.7 → D +36.9 · win prob 95%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +16.5
80% CI R +31.3 → D +25.6
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +10.5
80% CI D +8.9 → D +12.1
CV MAE 1.24
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the CA-31 House seat?” | 94¢ | 6¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 13 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet12
1
Endorsements tracked
Gil Cisneros12 · 92%
Eric Ching1 · 8%
Total13
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DGil Cisneros12 endorsers
Most notable · AIPAC
Organizations12
Organizations · 12
- AIPAC
- California Democratic Party
- California Environmental Voters
- California Federation of Labor Unions
- Giffords
- J Street PAC
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- National Union of Healthcare Workers
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Sierra Club
- Stonewall Democratic Club
REric Ching1 endorser
Most notable · California Republican Party
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- California Republican Party
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-01-09Gil CisnerosH8CA39174 ↗
Receipts
$565.9K
Disburse
$426.0K
Cash on hand
$179.9K
Debts
$5.5M
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Eric Ching
Receipts
$67.4K
Disburse
$48.7K
Cash on hand
$58.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$10
D side
$10 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
SIERRA CLUB INDEPEN…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 100% | for Gil Cisneros |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D5
Safe D · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 5
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DThe Economist
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-01-09
Endorsements13 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks