| 4/14/2026 | GQR | 1.00 | — | 500 | — | LV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡no scored polls+2- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 17 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Saikat Chakrabarti 26.0 · Connie Chan 11.0 · Marie Hurabiell 2.0 · Scott Wiener 44.0 | pollarch |
| 4/8/2026 | Data for Progress | 1.00 | —(D+1.0) | 537 | ±4.0 | LV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Progress (D)🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+2- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Progress (D) This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Progress (D)). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
| Saikat Chakrabarti 28.0 · Connie Chan 13.0 · David Ganezer 7.0 · Marie Hurabiell 5.0 · Scott Wiener 33.0 | pollarch |
| 4/4/2026 | David Binder Research | 1.00 | — | — | — | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+1- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 104 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
n unknown Pollster did not publish a sample size for this poll.
| Victor Aguilar Jr. 1.0 · Suzanne Chenault 1.0 · Carin Elam 0.0 · Melissa Hernandez 9.0 · Wendy Huang 9.0 · Dena Maldonado 8.0 · Matt Ortega 2.0 · Rakhi Singh 2.0 · Aisha Wahab 29.0 | pollarch |
| 3/23/2026 | Upswing Research | 1.00 | L | 400 | ±4.9 | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 54 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times Commissioned by The New York Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Doris Matsui 28.0 · Kathryn Ming 8.0 · Robert Morin 2.0 · Enayat Nazhat 1.0 · Mai Vang 17.0 · George Yang 22.0 | pollarch |
| 3/12/2026 | Data for Progress | 1.00 | —(D+1.0) | 797 | ±3.0 | LV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Progress (D)🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+2- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Progress (D) This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Progress (D)). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
| Saikat Chakrabarti 20.0 · Connie Chan 17.0 · Scott Wiener 32.0 | pollarch |
| 2/28/2026 | David Binder Research | 1.00 | — | 700 | ±3.7 | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡71d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
71d old Poll was fielded 71 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 104 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Audrey Denney 18.0 · James Gallagher 30.0 · Mike McGuire 33.0 · Angelita Valles 4.0 · Kyle Wilson 2.0 | pollarch |
| 2/19/2026 | Normington, Petts & Associates | 1.00 | L | 400 | ±4.9 | LV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
80d old Poll was fielded 80 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 52 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Christine Bish 15.0 · Martha Guerrero 9.0 · Thien Ho 8.0 · Richard Pan 14.0 · Ray Riehle 15.0 · Lauren Babb Tomlinson 10.0 · Tyler Vandenberg 3.0 | pollarch |
| 1/19/2026 | Tulchin Research | 1.00 | L | 800 | ±3.5 | LV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
111d old Poll was fielded 111 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 141 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Ken Calvert 44.0 · Esther Kim Varet 44.0 | pollarch |
| 1/19/2026 | Tulchin Research | 1.00 | L | 800 | ±3.5 | LV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
111d old Poll was fielded 111 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 141 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Young Kim 44.0 · Esther Kim Varet 43.0 | pollarch |
| 10/26/2025 | Blueprint Polling | 1.00 | L | 517 | ±4.3 | LV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
196d old Poll was fielded 196 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 112 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Darrell Issa 40.0 · Ammar Campa-Najjar 43.0 | pollarch |
| 9/20/2025 | Beacon Research | 1.00 | L | 600 | ±3.9 | RV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
232d old Poll was fielded 232 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 42 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Saikat Chakrabarti 29.0 · David Ganezer 11.0 · Nancy Pelosi 46.0 | pollarch |
| 9/18/2025 | EMC Research | 1.00 | L | 500 | ±4.4 | LV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
234d old Poll was fielded 234 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 38 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Saikat Chakrabarti 13.0 · Connie Chan 11.0 · Bruce Lou 11.0 · Christine Pelosi 9.0 · Scott Weiner 53.0 | pollarch |
| 8/8/2025 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 547 | ±4.2 | unknown | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡275d old+2- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
275d old Poll was fielded 275 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| David Valadao 42.0 · Jasmeet Bains 42.0 | pollarch |
| 8/8/2025 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 547 | ±4.2 | unknown | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡275d old+2- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
275d old Poll was fielded 275 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| David Valadao 37.0 | pollarch |
| 7/10/2025 | Tulchin Research | 1.00 | L | 400 | ±4.9 | LV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
304d old Poll was fielded 304 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 141 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kevin Kiley 47.0 · Heidi Hall 45.0 | pollarch |
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