Races · house · 2026 · California
house · open seat
Raul Ruiz vs Joe Males
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 32d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt D · model 88% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+14.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+1.4 (10th pctile) to D+30.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 88% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · tilt-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +14.6
80% CI: R +1.4 → D +30.7 · win prob 88%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +7.3
80% CI D +2.7 → D +20.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +10.5
80% CI D +8.9 → D +12.1
CV MAE 1.24
consensusMarket-implied
D +12.5
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 91¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the CA-25 House seat?” | 91¢ | 9¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 10 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet10
Endorsements tracked
Raul Ruiz10 · 100%
Joe Males0 · 0%
Total10
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DRaul Ruiz10 endorsers
Most notable · 314 Action
Organizations10
Organizations · 10
- 314 Action
- AIPAC
- California Democratic Party
- California Environmental Voters
- California Federation of Labor Unions
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- J Street PAC
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- National Union of Healthcare Workers
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
RJoe Males0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-09-19Raul RuizH2CA36439 ↗
Receipts
$1.9M
Disburse
$1.1M
Cash on hand
$2.4M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Joe Males
Receipts
$885.5K
Disburse
$874.0K
Cash on hand
$11.6K
Debts
$24.5K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$4.6K
D side
$8.08 · 0%
R side
$4.6K · 100%
Top spender
THE CONSERVATIVE CA…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTY pac · boosts R
| R | $4.6K | 100% | against Raul Ruiz |
| PLANNED PARENTHOOD ACTION FUND OF THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $8.08 | 0% | for Raul Ruiz |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D5
Safe D · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 5
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DThe Economist
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
71 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles71
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.14
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.42 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.14
Week-over-weekshift +0.42 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 21%
Neutral 72%
R 7%
28% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets21%
Neutral72%
R-leaning outlets7%
28% of outlets classified by editorial lean
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Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-09-19
Endorsements10 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks